BCS Ouija Board

The BCS mayhem that unfolds every year is upon America once again. Seemingly every year, in this crazy system that we call the BCS, there is more controversy that Dwight K. Schrute at a Battle Star Galactaca convention. Here is a simple rundown of how the teams left with a legitimate shot can get to the national title game and what has to happen to make it to the Orange Bowl on January 8, 2009.

Alabama is currently ranked number one in all national polls and the BCS ratings. Their road to Miami is simple win out and they are in. The major tests left for the Crimson Tide are this week's game at LSU, and the Iron Bowl on November 29 with Auburn, a team they have not beaten since 2001. If Nick Saban and the Tide can win both of these games, they would face arguably the hottest team in the nation Florida led by speed merchants Jeff Demps and Percy Harvin. The bottom line is Alabama has beat all comers this year and play better on the road than they do at home, however their biggest tests are yet to come. Auburn is less of a threat in a down year for the Tigers, but it is one of the biggest rivalries in the country and Tommy Tubberville could solidify his job position with a victory over the Tide. Six Mag gives the Tide a 75% chance to reach the title game based on their great ground game and stiff defense.

Texas Tech fresh off an upset of, the former # 1 ranked team Texas, is primed and ready to make a run at the school's first national title. What stands in the way of the pass-happy Techsters is a rugged season ending schedule. The Crabtrees' face Oklahoma State on the 8th and then get a bye week before heading to Norman to face the always good Sooners who have national title hopes as well. Afterwards they face a dangerous Baylor team that is playing as good as they have since their glory days in the 80's. Afterwards if they win those contests, they would most likely face Missouri for the Big 12 title and Missouri would love nothing more than to ruin the hopes of a team looking for its first at a national title ever. Tech has a chance behind their smooth field general, quarterback Graham Harrell, and All-Milky Way wide receiver Michael Crabtree. The key to Tech having a chance to reach the title game involves the critical bye week between facing both powers from Oklahoma. If they beat the Cowboys, they have two weeks to try to configure a plan to beat Oklahoma in Norman a feat that has only happened twice this century. Six Mag is giving Tech 45% chance to make the title game and the bye week gives Mike Leach the perfect situation to beat the odds and make it to Miami in January.

Penn State is sitting pretty in the polls but really, in my opinion, need both Alabama and Texas Tech to slip up in order to make it to the Orange Bowl. Historically, Penn State has had trouble making it to the championship game with undefeated teams. Does 1994 ring a bell? It has become clear that the Big Ten cannot compete with the talent from the other major conferences. The Big Ten is viewed publically as a slow weak conference and Ohio State's recent failure in big games only bolsters this perception, which has a direct impact when voters decide the top 25 (rankings). Furthermore, with its weak schedule, Penn State is likely to get jumped by a one loss SEC team such as Florida or even potential one loss contender from the Big 12 such as Texas. It all depends on how the last few games of the season shake out. If Penn State is the only undefeated team in the nation at the end of the season, it will be hard to argue that they don’t deserve a shot but the peripheral issues that surround the Big Ten and BCS may leave the Lions out in the Cold come January. Penn State faces no real tests before the end of the season, the only real threats are Iowa, which is surging as of late, and a tough nosed Michigan State team. Penn State losing either game would be a monumental upset. Six mag gives the Paterno's a 50/50 shot at making it to Miami.

Texas road to the BCS is a little more complicated. There is a very real possibility that if a Big 12 team represents their conference in the national title game, they could not be conference champions, similar to Nebraska in the Rose Bowl in January 2002. Texas could reach the championship by being the Big 12 conference champion, this means that Tech would have to lose twice and the Longhorns would run the table to beat Missouri again and possibly, depending who loses ahead of them or falls behind them, make it to Miami. This is the most realistic shot for the Longhorns as the Big 12 championship would give them another game for fans to see and boost their BCS rating. If Tech runs the table, they are in the championship game. However, if Tech was to lose the Big 12 title game to Missouri and Florida tops Alabama in the Sec Championship game, there is a chance the Horns could slip into the back jumping Penn State to make it to Miami. These are all long shot scenarios but Texas is still very much in the thick of things regarding the National Championship race. Give the horns a 40% chance to reach salvation

Florida is without a doubt the hottest team in the country. They have been swashbuckling a path of terror not seen in SEC country since Sherman's March. Florida's average margin of victory since the September loss to Ole Miss is 42 points against good competition. LSU was #4 and Georgia #6 when they played and the Gators beat them both by 30 plus points. Florida is still very much in control of their national title hopes. They are the hottest team in the country and still face a very good Florida State team and the winner from the SEC West, which is presumably Alabama. It is safe to say if Florida wins out they will be hard to keep out of the BCS championship picture. Furthermore, if Texas Tech falters, then the Gators have a really good chance of jumping the teams ahead of them and possibly winning their second National Title in three years. The key here is if Florida keeps blasting the competition, as they have been doing, expect them to make up enough ground to make the short trip from Gainesville to Miami. Here is where the margin of victory is supposedly not taken into account but is the main reason the Gators have such a good chance to finish in the top two in the BCS after what looked like a disastrous loss to Mississippi earlier in the year.

Oklahoma really is playing a waiting game in how the BCS plays out. Even though the Sooners have only lost one game, losing a late lead to Texas, they really are one of the more disadvantaged teams left as a legitimate contender to make it to Pro Player Stadium on the 8th. Oklahoma needs to beat Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, and Texas A&M to reach the title game. Texas A&M from time to time gives OU fits and even though the Aggies are down this year they have a good quarterback in Jerrod Johnson and decent talent around him. Oklahoma does not need to overlook this week's game if they are to have any chance. Oklahoma could find its way to Miami if Texas loses again and it would really help the Sooners if Florida lost in the regular season and beat Alabama in the SEC Championship game. Moreover, all this would have to happen with OU running the table and winning their conference championship game themselves. OU still has a chance but are going to need a lot of help from others in order to stamp its ticket to Miami. The Sooner's have about a 25% chance to reach the Orange Bowl.

USC is once again the victim to an unforeseen loss to a Pac-10 opponent, Oregon State, which was the case last year for the Trojans as well (Stanford). Besides these random losses to the bottom tier of the Pac-10, nobody else has touched the Trojans in recent years. Their biggest obstacle is themselves. This year, however, it would take a small miracle for the Trojans to make it to the big game. The Pac-10 is down this year, and this has left the perception across the nation that USC is the proverbial "Big Fish in a Small Pond." Furthermore, the one team to beat the Trojans, Oregon State, was pummeled 45-14 by Penn State just two weeks prior to upsetting USC. Based on this clear head-to-head comparison, I don't think the voters would give USC a shot over any other one-loss team in the country. Pete Carroll has been defensive about this recently calling for a change to the system. The truth is why does any team with one loss deserve to be shut out of the championship game? Especially a team with the experience and pedigree that USC has? If there was a playoff system in place, nobody and I repeat nobody would want USC on their side of the bracket! With the current system, if USC somehow made it to the championship game it would be a miracle. The Trojans could make the trip to Miami but only under the slimmest of margins Six Mag is giving Troy a 5% chance to play for all the marbles.

It is going to be very entertaining to see how the BCS turns out this year. There are a myriad of scenarios that could or could not play themselves out. The only thing for sure is that the game is going to be played on Jan. 8. No team mentioned in this article should count their eggs before they have hatched, sit back and relax and see if the BCS can once again give everyone in the country a reason to wonder what a playoff would be like.

Sincerely, Call My Secretary Clayborne